My Options Trading Unlocked – Newsletter 10 Dec 2023

Growing and improving trading skills when market opportunities are scarce. Read on and learn more about what I do to grow and improve my trading skills after I have managed all my positions.
Newsletter – Insights for Tomorrow’s Profits

10 Dec 2023

Growing and improving trading skills when market opportunities are scarce

Trading options for cash Flow, learn how to, options trading wheel strategy, follow, my trading weekly newsletter, transparent reports, via, my options trading journal spreadsheet, created in Google Sheets, Excel, instant download, webshop

Read on and learn more about what I do to grow and improve my trading skills after I have managed all my positions.

My goal is to share my journey and help you profit from options trading. I write about my thoughts on options trading and finance in general. I provide information about my trading and my insights, that could be helpful to you in options trading, especially focusing on applying strategies and what I anticipate in the stock market for the upcoming week. Every week I report on the status of my trading accounts.

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1. Thoughts and Opinions
How options traders can grow and to improve their skills when market opportunities are scarce.

When the market presents fewer opportunities for our options trading and our portfolio, such as during periods of low volatility or when your capital is fully committed, there are still valuable activities beyond just monitoring market movements. We, options traders, can use this time effectively to develop and refine our trading skills in several ways. Such a calm period can be a perfect opportunity to strengthen our knowledge foundation, refine our strategies, and prepare for future market conditions. As we navigate through periods where options trading opportunities seem scarce, it’s crucial to remember that these times are not merely pauses in our trading journey but valuable moments for growth and skill enhancement. Here are a couple of key ways I use to improve my option trading during “calm periods”:

Expand my knowledge and practice

I try to use these calm times to deepen your understanding of options trading by (re)reading books, watching option trading webinars, and so on. I try to dive deeper into understanding various options strategies and market dynamics, especially those strategies I haven’t used much before. This can involve exploring new trading techniques or strengthening your grasp of existing strategies. I don’t want to limit this to only a theoretical study but I do try to apply the strategies I learn about in real money trades.

I recently expanded beyond traditional securities by exploring options on futures, such as the 112 trade on /MES (Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures) and /MCL (Micro Crude Oil futures). This way I try to learn and understand the nuances of futures options, such as their expiration patterns, leverage, and how they differ from standard equity options while applying options strategies with high probability of profit. This involves understanding

I have recently broadened my knowledge about the diagonal spread strategy in stock options, a topic I’ve been aiming to explore for quite some time. This advanced strategy involves simultaneously buying and selling options with different strike prices and expiration dates. It can be a powerful tool in a trader’s arsenal, especially in markets with low volatility, like right now. And of course the next step is to try out the diagonal spread strategy in a live trade, which I did (all trades are available on our discord).

I am convinced that “real trade – real money” application is crucial for getting to understand the practical aspects of strategy execution, managing positions, and adjusting the strategy based on market movements. It provides valuable experience in decision-making, risk management, and adapting to market conditions, the best way to learn.

I feel that these new steps in my trading journey will significantly enhance my trader’s skills and readiness for a variety of market conditions.

Regularly reviewing past trades

On a weekly basis, typically over the weekend, I dedicate time to analyze both my recent and historical trading activities. I firmly believe that this routine is crucial for my ongoing development and progress in trading.

This involves taking time to make a detailed analysis of both successful and unsuccessful trades and to extract valuable insights and lessons. This isn’t just about assessing profits and losses; it’s about understanding the ‘why’ behind each outcome. A comprehensive trading journal can be an invaluable tool in this process, helping you to spot patterns, refine strategies, and evolve your trading plan based on concrete data and personal reflections. To conduct an effective review, I suggest you start by maintaining a comprehensive trading journal that records specifics of each trade, including the strategy used, market conditions, outcomes, and even if you want to be very detailed, your thought process during the trade.

While reviewing, I objectively evaluate what factors contributed to the success or failure of a trade. I consider aspects like market analysis accuracy, execution timing, and adherence to my trading plan. I use data from the journal to identify patterns or recurring issues for specific strategies, and I do make specific decisions about necessary adjustments to my strategy (do’s and don’ts).

Additionally, I do believe it’s vital to assess the impact of external factors such as market volatility or economic news and how they influenced the trade’s outcome. This helps in understanding how to better navigate similar situations in the future. This is also the reason for my weekly newsletter.

I believe that review and reflection should also extend to personal performance, evaluating aspects like emotional responses and discipline. Identifying personal strengths and weaknesses can be as crucial as assessing strategy effectiveness. I think that continuously updating and refining my approach based on these reflections is key to evolving as a trader and improving long-term performance.

Networking with other traders

Based on my personal experience, actively engaging with fellow traders through trading forums and social media platforms has proven to be extremely advantageous for me and those engaged in options trading. Generally, I believe there’s a notable sense of openness and a good inclination towards mutual assistance within these communities.

Social media platforms offer a unique opportunity to engage with a diverse community of traders, ranging from novices to experienced professionals. Through these interactions, traders can gain access to a wealth of knowledge and different perspectives on trading strategies and market trends. For instance, engaging in discussions on forums or social media groups can expose traders to various trading techniques and strategies, such as volatility options trading strategies or advanced techniques for experienced investors. It also allows for the sharing of experiences and insights into how certain strategies perform under specific market conditions, offering real-world context that can be immensely valuable. Moreover, networking can serve as a platform for feedback and constructive criticism, enabling traders to refine their approaches. This collaborative environment encourages continuous learning and adaptation, which are crucial in the dynamic world of options trading. It’s not just about gaining new insights; networking also fosters a sense of community and support, which can be particularly beneficial during challenging market conditions.

In summary, networking with other traders is not just about exchanging strategies; it’s an avenue for comprehensive growth, learning, and staying connected with the ever-evolving landscape of options trading. Hence the reason why I have started our discord channel.

Conclusion

I suggest to use these quieter periods as a springboard to elevate our trading expertise. By focusing on learning new aspects of trading, reviewing my trades via my journal and networking with other like-minded traders, I am convinced that I can optimally turn a period of scarce market opportunities and required actions into a valuable time for growth and skill enhancement.

In embracing these practices, I am not just waiting for the market to present opportunities; I am trying to actively create them. So, as a call to action for you all, I would suggest to take these “calm moments” to commit to your continuous improvement as an options trader. The journey is as rewarding as the destination, and each step you take now lays the foundation for future success.

Have an awesome trading week.

2. Overall Market Overview (Week from 04 Dec – 08 Dec 23)

When I prepare for trading or following the market and my positions, I focus on two aspects : the general trend of the market with the indexes, mainly the SPX and the volatility of the stocks with the VIX. The reason why is clear: the general trend of the market and stock volatility are essential for options traders because they directly impact options pricing, influence trading strategies, and offer opportunities for risk management and profit generation in the dynamic world of options trading.

And then again, I don’t want to over-analyse too: but basically the SPX trend and VIX levels are not far away.

Although I thought the graph of last week showed that the market was topping out, the market decided to keep going higher again this week : the SPX index closed 10 points up (+0,2 %) from 4594 to 4604.

I did make the argument last week, that the market looked pretty overbought, but the SPX remained strong and closed with a strong green candle. It now looks to continue the uptrend. We will have to see what next week will bring.

SPX Chart – SPX 4604 $


Market outlook for next week : I must agree with the saying nobody knows anything. I prefer to be not too much directional.


VIX Chart – VIX USD 12.35

Over the last weeks the VIX went down even further from the low level of 13.63 last week, ending this week at 12.35, a new yearly low and staying below the 13% floor and at the lowest levels in three years !!

It’s hard to imagine the VIX staying at this low level… but again who really knows. I will keep a very careful posture when adding new positions for now.


3. TOCF Portfolio Weekly Recap & Trading Plan

a. Results week (04 Dec – 08 Dec 23) & currently open positions:

Here is an overview for all accounts of the positions and results of last week :

Trading options for cash Flow, learn how to, options trading wheel strategy, follow, my trading weekly newsletter, transparent reports, via, my options trading journal spreadsheet, created in Google Sheets, Excel, instant download, webshop

No positions closed last week, only 3 positions rolled. Details about all the trades are posted in the discord channels.

The profits (or losses) are always the sum of the results of the closed positions during that given period. The open unrealised P/L is ($9457.00), a strong negative mainly due to the FSR performance.

I will keep my the trading goal for December at $1350.

  • 📈 Set Goal $1350 : ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ – finished above the monthly target $0 / $1350 (=0%) 🔴
  • Realised Net Profit/Loss : $0 ( just over half way to the 2% I am aiming for in Dec 23)
  • Portfolio Net Liq value : € 59892 (Weekly change 📈 : € -213 or – 0,35 %) or in dollars (influence exchange rate!) $64525 (Monthly change 📉 : – $910 or -1,3%)

The portfolio’s performance over the past weeks has been significantly overshadowed by the underwhelming results of Fisker Inc (FSR) stock, in which the portfolio is overly invested. I have currently 20 Puts open which continue to perform worse every week. I expect a battle for profitability after assignment with this stock, although I am still a believer in the great future for this stock.

Info – Interpretation of the exchange rate : I am from Europe and my base currency is euro. I am trading the US markets from a MEXEM account held in euros and from a Tastytrade account held in dollars. This means that I have and express my open positions and profits/losses of the US markets in dollars on both accounts. The Net Liq for me is only relevant in euros, taking into account the exchange rate (which sometimes is an advantage and sometimes not). This explains the difference in results between euros and dollars and for me the evolution of the Net Liq in euros is what matters ultimately.

Completely in accordance with my strategy. In case you missed it my strategy document or you hadn’t had the time yet, here is the link again to “Developing my strategy and profit goals guide”. Any thoughts or comments you may have on this trading strategy document, please don’t hesitate to email me or write them in the comments of the page.

c. My Trading Plan for upcoming week:

At portfolio level :

  • The MX account is in euro en the TT accounts in USD.
  • Theta level is still too low by closing plenty of positions this last 2 week. So this is an action point for the coming week, look for opportunities to bring back up the portfolio theta, keeping in mind the low VIX
  • I have been aiming to keep a descent delta/theta ratio. I have corrected the spreadsheet in a way that holding long stock is now also part of the calculation making the Spy B weighted delta correct for the whole of the positions. The sum of the SPY Beta Weighted Deltas of my three accounts is $0,17 (meaning if the SPY goes up $1, my portfolio value will down $17 and vice versa)
  • I am aiming for a 1:2 ratio (or lower) with neutral delta/theta. My positions have made a nice recovery and after adjusting some positions where required, the delta/theta ratio is at 0,17 at the moment. I can certainly live with the small short ratio, but the theta is too low. But again, I need to keep the low VIX in mind.

Most of my open positions are in the red. I will have to continue battling to get the assigned stock back up to profitability by looking for opportunities for covered calls.

At individual stock level :

  • It looks a bit that $PYPL and $LYFT, especially $LYFT, have started their recovery. I will keep selling CCs aggressively of these stocks to bring down the cost basis.
  • $FSR and $IWM are currently my 2 problem problem childs at this moment. In $FSR I need a recovery move to $5. A few times good news or the absence of bad news will make the stock recover as it did on last Friday.

4. Weekly Watchlist

I will keep my attention to the open positions and I don’t intent to add any more given my current, relatively high allocation : AAPL, SOFI, AMD, LYFT, UNG, MRNA, FSR, PYPL, IWM, MSFT, GOOGL, MRVL

5. Other stuff – info & links

  • I have noticed that users often ask the same questions about the spreadsheets I provide via the webshop. Hence the reason why I have started a page with Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) – And if you have any specific questions, please do take a look at the FAQ Page about the use of our spreadsheets.
  • As a reminder, you can always follow my opening and closing trades via the discord channel. I’ve made the decision to refrain from duplicating content from the Discord channels here in my newsletter. This in order to optimize my time and focus and provide the most value to you, primarily on improving my trade management skills and sharing my experiences with you all. When there is a particular trade I feel warrants a comprehensive analysis, I will definitely include all pertinent details and figures in the newsletter.
  • I have been receiving a couple of questions of users of the spreadsheet how to get the updated versions. Just to be clear, the normal updates of a spreadsheet are always free and the best way to get them is by making an account when buying and subscribing to the newsletter to get info about possible updates. This will allow you to always download the updates. Take a look at this article which explains how : https://www.tradingoptionscashflow.com/benefits-of-creating-a-tocf-shop-account/ . If you bought the earlier version on Etsy, drop me an email and I’ll give you a free download of the updated version at no extra cost.

Whenever you’re ready, here are 3 ways I can help you to improve your option trading:

  1. For the option traders still looking for a Trading Options Spreadsheet to track their results and improve their trading, check out the EASY “All In Trading Options Journal Spreadsheet”: the ONLY option trading journal designed to focus on parameter-based options trading and account management, as probabilistic-minded options traders like me like it. Checkout this article about the spreasdsheet, the multiple tutorials about the spreadsheet on my Youtube or read about the spreadsheet directly available in our webshop
Best Options Trading Journal Spreadsheet for the highly profitable option trader looking to learn from his trade journal
  1. If you are not a Free member of our discord yet : In our discord channels, we team-up with other like-minded option traders, with the aim to support each other and share valuable insights and ideas. I provide live comments, trade alerts, educational info and tools via our discord room. Join anytime ! here: http://discord.gg/cGW6xH4RNT
  2. In case you haven’t found me on social media: I suggest to follow me on X @L2TradeOptions and on Youtube @TradingOptionsCashflow to pick up my latest content.

I hope that providing some insights in my trading and my thoughts, will trigger some thoughts and maybe ideas that will help you with your trading and helps to become an even more profitable options trader. Don’t hesitate to contact me to talk options.

Thanks for reading the TOCF Newsletter, a great weekend and happy trading!

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Let’s generate cash flow together !

P&K


Please do leave your thoughts below in the comments.

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